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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's long-running bid to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the rights to put on the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the bid to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Ankara declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a summit hindered from the leadership if his government managed the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for increasing carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and achieve an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement appearing as the best chance possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.