Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Decline Thirty-Seven Percent In President Sheinbaum, Per Official Figures

The typical number of daily killings monthly in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per new administrative data. However, public safety specialists have cautioned that murder numbers might not point to better countrywide security.

Significant Drop in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an average of close to 55 killings a day in November versus almost 87 when the President began the presidency in the previous September. This information was shared by the director of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that have been recorded during these months is extremely significant,” Sheinbaum said, noting that in November the smallest number of homicides were recorded for any November in the last decade.

Historical Background and Government Plan

Fierce cartel rivalries, alongside the administration's highly military efforts to confront the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent years. The rate hit a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data office.

That gave Mexico a murder figure over four times higher than that of the United States. Since then, killings have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security plan for an apparently more pronounced drop in homicides this year.

At a press conference in August, the Mexican leader said: “There is a plan, we have oversight of the plan, and we have detailed tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The central elements of the President's security plan encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Increased cooperation between various departments.

Expert Warnings and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety researchers urged caution that using homicide statistics to paint a picture of pacification was problematic. This is especially true in light of the increase in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be positive information if this was a drop, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the murder numbers and say: ‘Well then, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously positive.”

Per the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the identical timeframe last year. Yet, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer useful for gauging the situation of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who do not have the ability or the will to correctly identify and categorize remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month averages of daily homicides was additionally an issue because it might hide periods when there were notably high levels of murders.

“Employing the daily mean makes spikes of violent crime less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

An area where the administration can point to the success of its security plan is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and this past November for serious offenses, according to official data. More than 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

However despite these efforts, Mexico remains plagued by severe bloodshed, with a number of regions in the midst of cartel-driven bloodshed. In the previous month there was a notable assassination of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the last year.

Weeks after, thousands of protesters demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the country to show their frustration at graft and narco-violence.

“The government presents [data] in a manner to construct a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s extremely successful, socially it’s highly questionable,” Vargas said.